In January 2005, the Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME) released its 16th Report, "Physician Workforce Policy Guidelines for the United States, 2000-2020" recommending an increase of 3,000 medical school graduates by 2015 in order to meet rising demand and need. Only under the most optimistic of various supply and demand scenarios outlined in the report would the nation have an adequate supply to meet demand in the year 2020. When the mid-points of the projected supply and demand scenarios outlined in the report are used, the net result is a projected shortage of about 85,000 physicians in 2020 - which is equivalent to approximately ten percent of today's physician workforce.

Source: U.S. Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME), Physician Workforce Policy Guidelines for the US for 2000-2020, Report (2005)